Long-time Arafat confidant Qaddumi, who had opposed the Oslo accords with Israel that Abbas helped negotiate, cast his vote for Abbas by telephone from Paris. Kaddumi had been considered a potential contender for the post. Smooth transition. Abbas is likely to begin wielding effective power immediately, even while Fattuh holds the official reins.
Fattuh, 55, grew up in the Rafah refugee camp in Gaza. He left Gaza for studies abroad in the s, joined Fatah in and returned from exile in , along with Arafat and other Palestinian officials. Ironically, the biggest vote getters at Bethlehem are not the real contenders.
Elderly Fatah leader Abu Maher Ghneim, who lives in the diaspora, obtained 1, votes and former Nablus Governor Mahmud al-Alul obtained 1,, but they are seen as having won on the basis of a well-prepared game by Abbas and his entourage. Even imprisoned Marwan Barghouthi, the West Bank Fatah activist leader who placed third with 1, votes and consistently outpolls other Fatah leaders in public opinion in the West Bank and Gaza, is at a serious disadvantage inside the organization.
Heading the list of active contenders is Mohammed Dahlan, former head of Preventive Security in Gaza. Some observers considered his comeback impressive and were struck by his authoritative presence at the conference. Accurately or not, Palestinians consider Dahlan the prime U. While no longer occupying an official position in one of the security branches, Dahlan still seems to be very much in charge and working from behind the scenes, apparently occupying an independent office in his former ministry Civil Affairs in Ramallah.
He never scores more than two percent—averaging his very low support in the West Bank with somewhat higher support in Gaza—in opinion polls. Like Dahlan, Rajub no longer occupies an official position in the security domain. Rajub enjoys some support in the West Bank, particularly in his native region of Hebron, and has been able to increase his popularity all over the West Bank in recent years by heading the Palestinian Olympic Committee and the Palestinian Football Association.
Although no longer occupying an official position, Tirawi still seems to play an important role advising Abbas. Even so, he is probably even less popular with the public than Dahlan or Rajub, and draws strong objections from Israel and Hamas as well.
Whichever eventually succeeds, the Bethlehem Conference underscored an interesting trend; it is the security figures in Fatah who probably will control the future of the movement. Even a charismatic leader such as Marwan Barghouthi, who has a mass following but is unable to operate freely at present, probably cannot compete.
The Fatah security leaders will give him lip service and use his name, without granting him a role in the decision-making process. Another important trend is the dominance of U. This influence is exercised primarily through the security sector, where, unlike in the rest of the PA, Prime Minister Salam Fayyad has not been able to establish full transparency and civilian control of incoming funds.
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